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Paper is the best because the value of a throw isn't determined just by the reward it gives you if you win, but also by what you're risking if you lose. In the case of Rock, it's true that you stand to gain 10 points if you win, but you also risk losing 5.  That exchange is only 2:1.

But paper is WAY better.  Think about it - it's true that you stand to gain fewer points (5), but you're also only risking one.  That makes this exchange 5:1 in your favor, meaning your opponent needs to throw scissors FIVE TIMES for every one time you win with paper, just to stay even.

But what about scissors?  Throwing scissors is downright suicidal.  You only stand to gain a single point, but you risk giving your opponent 10!  That is NOT a good risk to take.  Throwing scissors should be avoided at all costs.

Which, ultimately, is why paper is the best.  It's high reward, low risk, and in fact forces your opponent into making risky moves in order to deal with it.  If they ever want to score points against you, they have to throw scissors repeatedly...but throwing scissors is a really, really bad idea, since it opens you up for a devestating Rock!

So what would a match between a pro player and a casual player look like?  It would start with the pro player calmly throwing paper over and over, while the casual player makes all kinds of throws.  The pro player would steadily gain lots of points, while the casual player would gain almost none.  After a while, the casual player would see what's going on, and try to counter the constant stream of paper with his own stream of scissors...

...but then, out comes rock, and the game is over.

With that in mind, I leave you with this video of Mike Watson playing an absolutely immaculate Guile against a random Ken.  Watch just how effectively paper works its magic.

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